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Idon Associates is an international consultancy, specializing in strategic thinking. We outline their approach to scenario planning.
The Idon approach to strategic development is to emphasize flexibility so that the organization is adaptable to shocks and changes. Scenarios help because they encourage thinking about the future and about contingencies.
General Guidelines
Idon suggests the following general guidelines for scenarios.
They should:
- present a plausible future
- be distinct from one another
- not be confused with predictions
- challenge prevailing wisdom and prejudices
- encompass a wide range of viewpoints
- identify trends and drivers of change
- be flexible and encourage flexible strategies
- mitigate against reactive management
- help build competitive advantage
- plan for long-term survival
- overcome fear of the uncertain
- suggest contingencies
Approach to Formulating Scenarios
The following steps describe a pragmatic approach to constructing scenarios:
- Identify a suitable group of stakeholders to contribute to the process. Pick people with imaginative outlooks.
- Interview them or conduct focus groups or workshops to get their opinions on the future of the organization.
- Map the suggested events chronologically.
- Make sure the time line is consistent and clear.
- Convert the time line into a ‘story’ or scenario.
- Illustrate important points with evidence. For example, this might include recent trend analyzes or lessons from experience.
- Attempt to represent scenarios diagrammatically for the most impact.
In order to engage senior management, it will be necessary to give the process a business-edge. Ideally, this should comprise an evaluation of the effect strategic redevelopment would have on the bottom-line.
