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Aim
This case study encourages participants to elicit problems and potential pitfalls in a situation when everything appears to be going well.
Learning Objectives
Participants will be able to …
- highlight problems and potential pitfalls in organizational thinking
- consider the use of scenario planning as a means of avoiding unforeseen disaster
- begin to implement scenario planning techniques into the organizational culture
Facilitator Guidance
This case study has important lessons for all members of staff. It encourages regular assessment of current practices and consideration of their likelihood to produce future success. Indeed, it is often said that ‘it is when things are going well that you should be most worried.’ Allow about 45 minutes for completion.
Suggested Resources
- task sheet
- flipchart paper
- flipchart pens
What to Do (25 Minutes)
- Introduce the theme of the case study and explain the objectives of the exercise.
- Distribute task sheets to all participants and allow them five minutes to familiarize themselves with the scenario and formulate some ideas on what action to take. Stress that there are no right or wrong answers.
- Then divide the group into at least two subgroups of no more than six participants (this will ensure that everyone has the opportunity to contribute). Ask the subgroups to discuss the scenario and how they would deal with it. Allow 15 minutes for this.
Review Activity (15 Minutes)
Bring the participants back together to review the findings of each subgroup. Ask participants to share their concerns about the situation outlined in the case study scenario. Write the participants’ answers onto a flipchart for everyone to see. Some suggestions are:
- failure to plan for changes in markets and customer values
- failure to develop and constantly update strategies, leaving the company completely unprepared for future changes
- flaws in competitive thinking that could potentially lead to disaster
- individuals who have driven early success feel invincible and this hampers their ability to anticipate future changes
- apparent inability to compete and move with the market
- difficulty/refusal to plan for the future
- consensus style of management is dulling the decision-making process
- lack of clear and united direction from directors leaves other staff confused and demotivated
- organizational culture seems to prefer living for the moment, which is always dangerous in any business
Invite the group to share their thoughts on how to improve the situation. Some useful questions might be:
- What improvements could be made to the way that the company conducts its business?
- How would scenario planning help this company?
Once again, you should write the participants’ suggestions on the flipchart.
Useful points include:
- Scenario planning could have meant it was easier for the company to weather any storms it faced.
- Scenario planning would have highlighted the potential pitfalls of and solutions to the company’s problems.
- Scenario planning helps implant visions and ideas in people’s minds so that they become more sensitive to changes on the horizon.
- Scenario planning helps inject vigor into the decision-making process.
- Scenario discussions tend to get everyone involved. This would help staff morale.
Apply Learning (5 Minutes)
Encourage the group to think about how this case study relates back to their teams. What did they learn from Packed Mules that they can take back to the workplace and apply to their own teams/ departments? Encourage participants to consider planning for the future in their own team/department, and how they can ensure that this is a rigorous and effective process. Ask everyone to share at least one action that they will take.
Case Study: The Pitfall and the Pendulum
Packed Mules, an online company specializing in global delivery solutions, has been established for five years now and has become one of the leaders in its field. The young start-up company has enjoyed a meteoric rise and has attracted envy from a number of its established competitors.
At present it relies almost fully upon the internet for promoting business. This tactic has worked incredibly well for them as it has allowed them to attract the custom of a growing population of web surfers while keeping their advertising costs to a minimum.
A few of the employees have suggested a meeting to discuss the research they have conducted on the changing habits of customers and the possible impact of this on the company. Two managers have written a report arguing in favor of considering future advertising tactics, especially now that the company has significant funds at its disposal. The management team have, however, declined to get involved at this stage, citing previous commitments and engagements. At the same time, one staff member has mentioned overhearing the two founders of the company joking about the fact that they are invincible and that their business strategies are the most successful of any company’s over the last 20 years.
In subsequent weeks, a few managers have tried to broach the subject with the ‘inner sanctum’ but have found that the company leaders tend to agree completely with each other and are dismissive of any thinking critical to their past and current strategies. Such feelings of being unable to make an impact on the company’s present and future direction has left many members of staff feeling confused and demotivated.
This morning, a rival online global delivery solutions company announced that it plans to buy out a major media company. An emergency meeting with all managers, directors and board members was called. Some managers argued that this was exactly what they had thought could happen and that the company should move quickly to beat its rival’s offer or buy a different media company. However, the main decision-makers have laughed this off, calling it ‘extreme’ and ‘drastic’. They see the acquisition of a major media company as complete (and expensive) folly.
Task
- In your groups, discuss the following questions:
- What concerns do you have about this situation?
- Does the company have any major organizational flaws?
- If so, what are these flaws?
- How can the company remedy this situation?
