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The Delphi Method

Achieving a well thought-through consensus among experts.

Why use the tool?

It's a common observation to say that when you get three experts together, you'll often end up with four different opinions. This is particularly the case in areas such as resource allocation and forecasting where the conclusion reached depends on a number of subjective assessments. In cases like these, arguments can quickly become passionate, and disagreement can often become intensely personal and bitter.

More than this, in face-to-face discussion, situations of "groupthink" can occur. Here (for example) the eccentric views of early or charismatic speakers can achieve undue prominence as the group seeks to find consensus. This can lead to poor decision making.

This is where a technique like the Delphi Method is needed to reach a properly thought-through consensus among experts.

How to Use the Tool:

The Delphi Method works...(Sign in to read more.)

Full text of this article is available to members of the Mind Tools Career Excellence Club. If you're a member, please click here for full text, or sign in below.

Key Points:

The Delphi Method is a structured approach to problem analysis which makes sure that problems and proposed solutions are thoroughly explored and examined.

By using a remote and anonymous approach, it avoids the problems of groupthink and personality conflict that can lead to poor group decision making. More than this, it allows the time for detailed analysis and careful criticism that so often is not possible within a group analysis and decision making process.

The process works through a number of cycles of anonymous written discussion and argument, managed by a facilitator. The facilitator controls the process, and manages the flow and consolidation of information.

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