Preparing sufficiently for the worst.
Risk management is an important function in organizations today. Companies undertake increasingly complex and ambitious projects, and those projects must be executed successfully, in an uncertain and often risky environment.
As a responsible manager, you need to be aware of these risks. Does this mean that you should try to address each and every risk that your project might face? Probably not – in all but the most critical environments, this can be much too expensive, both in time and resources.
Instead, you need to prioritize risks. If you do this effectively, you can focus the majority of your time and effort on the most important risks.
The Risk Impact/Probability Chart provides a useful framework that helps you decide which risks need your attention.
The Risk Impact/Probability Chart is based on the principle that a risk has two primary dimensions:
The chart allows you to rate potential risks on these two dimensions. The probability that a risk will occur is represented on one axis of the chart – and the impact of the risk, if it occurs, on the other.
You use these two measures to plot the risk on the chart. This gives you a quick, clear view of the priority that you need to give to each. You can then decide what resources you will allocate to managing that particular risk.
The basic form of the Risk Impact/Probability Chart is shown in figure 1, below.
Figure 1 – The Risk Impact/Probability Chart
The corners of the chart have these characteristics:
It's natural to want to turn this into a two-by-two matrix. The problem here is where the lines dividing the quadrants of the matrix lie. For example – should you ignore a 49 percent probability risk, which will cause a 49 percent of maximum loss? And why, in this example, should you pay maximum attention to a risk that has a 51 percent probability of occurring, with a loss of 51 percent of maximum loss?
To use the Risk Impact/Probability Chart, print this free worksheet, and then follow these steps:
To successfully implement a project, you must identify and focus your attention on middle and high-priority risks – otherwise you risk spreading your efforts too thinly, and you'll waste resources on unnecessary risk management.
With the Risk Impact/Probability Chart, you map out each risk – and its position determines its priority. High-probability/high-impact risks are the most critical, and you should put a great deal of effort into managing these. The low-probability/high-impact risks and high-probability/low-impact risks are next in priority, though you may want to adopt different strategies for each.
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